CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z WED 24/11 - 06Z THU 25/11 2004
ISSUED: 23/11 21:52Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

General thunderstorms are forecast across southern Greece and southwestern Turkey

SYNOPSIS

Wednesday at 06Z... a ridge is situated over western Europe and a trough harbouring a closed low over the northwestern Ukraine. Teh latter system moves southeastward and is forecast over the western Black Sea on Thursday morning.

DISCUSSION

...southern Greece, southwestern Turkey...
An east-west oriented cold front over northern Greece and the southern Adriatic is expected to move southward during the forecast period. Scattered thunderstorms are expected in the warm sector ahead of this system, where numerical models predict rising motions, primarily over the southern Aegean Sea and southern Turkey. As mid- and upper levels winds increase over southern Turkey, some storms may become better organized and produce a few brief near-severe or severe events. Chances should however be low as shear remains rather modest and latent instability is low.

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